A few days ago, a good friend complained that he had missed the opportunity of Tesla's stock rise. He once held a lot of Tesla shares. Later, when he saw Elon Musk constantly making wilful comments in the media, he felt that there was something wrong with the company.
After careful consideration, he decided to cash out all. Later, the trend of Tesla's stock had saddened him. Not only Tesla's stock did not fall, but it rose sharply. He couldn't sleep well for several days, and kept blaming himself for being too sloppy at the beginning. Tesla shares should be sold. As for me, I also suffered, and I had to listen to his constant complaints patiently.
Is Tesla's stock price soaring because of his sales? Here, let’s talk about the top sales of electric cars in China. What kind of car is it? Is it Tesla? Tesla has a real price advantage after domestic production (made in China). Is Tesla the top sales of electric vehicles in China? the answer is negative. The sales champion is actually Wuling Hongguang MINI EV. The sales volume of Wuling Hongguang MINI EV can reach 2,000 units in a single day, which is much higher than Tesla’s sales in China. Let’s talk about why this sacred car is favoured by Chinese consumers, and whether this sacred car has a chance to go abroad to create the sales miracle in overseas markets.
Speaking of Wuling Hongguang, I have to mention the miracle created by the previous fuel version in the Chinese market, becoming the country's highest-selling model. Continuing the great achievements of this car, Wuling Hongguang MINI EV, with its own advantages and very clear market positioning, has created another great achievement for Wuling. How did this car become such a successful model?
First of all, this sacred car is really cheap. The entry-level version is less than RMB 30,000, which is not much more expensive than a motorcycle, but it is still four-seater, so you don’t have to worry about being drenched in rain compared to a motorcycle. The car reviews are basically still very positive, and the speed, driving feeling, quality, and still get quite good reviews. Of course, we can’t compare it with Tesla or other electric vehicles. After all, the market positioning is different and the price span is very large.
It is not so much a scooter in the coming era, as it is the leader of electric vehicles in the future, because to popularize electric vehicles, you must not only attack the high-end market, but must become a Volkswagen vehicle that everyone can have. This sacred car has everything it should have, a USB port, air conditioning, plus a few hundred renminbi, there is an iPad option, four seats, or an LCD screen. It's really not so fussy.
I have said many times that electric vehicles must be popularized, not just toys for the wealthy, they must meet the needs of the general public in their daily lives, and the price is reasonable, and this Wuling Hongguang MINI EV just meets the needs of consumers. .
特斯拉股价猛涨，是不是和他的销量有关呢？这里我们就来说说，中国电动车销量之冠，是什么车？是特斯拉吗？特斯拉国产（中国制造）后有实际的价格优势，那特斯拉是中国电动车销量之冠吗？答案是否定的。销量冠军其实是五菱宏光MINI EV。五菱宏光MINI EV单日销量就可以达到2000台，远比特斯拉中国销量高，我们来聊聊这台神车为什么会被中国消费者青睐，还有就是这台神车有没有机会跨出国境，在海外市场同样创造出销售奇迹。
说到五菱宏光，不得不提到之前的燃油版在中国市场创造的奇迹，成为全国销量最高的车型。续着这台车的伟绩，五菱宏光MINI EV 凭着自身优势和非常明确的市场定位，为五菱再创伟绩。这车到底是怎么成为这么成功的车型？
We often see words like traditional car companies building new trend in the media and the Internet. What's more interesting is the emergence of two opposing groups, expressing their position strongly in the media, and the one who feels they support In future will occupy a leading position in the field of electric vehicles. Between traditional car companies and new car manufacturers, who do you think will dominate the market in the next ten years?
So far, there is no doubt that the leader in electric vehicles is Tesla, a new force in building cars. In terms of sales alone, Tesla accounts for about 30% of global electric passenger car sales. Market analysts say that Tesla will continue to consolidate its market position in the next 10 years. This analysis immediately caused Tesla's share price to rise sharply, and it was only recently that Tesla's share price declined. How do industry professionals view this game?
Traditional car companies are accelerating their pace and continuously launching new energy models. I saw a piece of news recently that Mazda launched the electric car MX-30. Yes, you heard that right, even Mazda has launched electric cars. I originally thought that Mazda would delay the electric plan as much as possible. The reason is very simple. Mazda has made a lot of investment in traditional gasoline drive and developed skyactiv. The investment has not paid off, and there is such an electric trend.
Those who stand on the side of traditional car companies will say that traditional car companies feel the challenge from these new car manufacturers every day, and those who stand on the side of new car manufacturers will say that their dominant position is being violently bombarded by traditional car companies. Traditional car companies believe that Tesla's leadership is only temporary. Traditional car companies have advantages in all aspects and will soon surpass the new power of car manufacturers. Indeed, traditional car companies have many years of car-making experience, financial resources, networks, contacts, profit pillars, and an important industrial supply chain role. These are beyond the reach of new car-making forces. Then again, what are the advantages of the new car-building forces? Can the statement hold up that they will continue to lead the market?
I seem to have found the answer in Mazda's new electric car MX-30. Obviously, traditional car companies will try their best to maintain the original style in the design of electric vehicles. The main change is to replace the engine and replace it with an electric motor. Other aspects are carried out in accordance with the standard of thinking. New car-building forces do not operate according to this rule. What they seek is a breakthrough. As a traditional car company executive said, "the products of new car-building forces often have colourful shapes and a large number of innovative functions." Look at the Mazda MX-30, how can an electric car still have a gear stick? I also found the front grill on the electric cars of other traditional car companies. What happened? Don't electric cars use air intake? Their executives explained it this way: Our front face has a high degree of recognition, which will remain unchanged for a hundred years.
To change our face all at once, our loyal customers may not be able to accept it all at once, and it may take a transition period, so our electric cars will still retain the air intake grille.
我在马自达新款电动车MX-30里面仿佛找到了答案。很明显的，传统车企在电动车设计方面会尽量保持原有的风格，主要的改变就是把发动机给换掉，有电机来取代，其他方面按照中规中矩的思路来进行。造车新势力就不是按照这个规则操作的，他们寻求的是突破，就如某传统车企高管所说的“造车新势力的产品往往拥有丰富多彩的造型以及大量的创新性功能”。你看看马自达MX-30，一台电动车怎么还会出现档把(gear stick）的呢？我还在其他传统车企的电动车上发现进气格栅（front grill），怎么回事？电动车不是不用进气的吗？他们的高管是这么解释的：我们的前脸有很高的认知度，百年不变。一下子把我们改头换面，我们的忠实客户不一定能一下子就接受，可能还需要一个过渡期，所以我们的电动车还是会保留进气格栅。
I also found the traditional dashboard on the Mazda electric car, and I was a bit surprised. Now even many new internal combustion vehicles have LCD screens. Why is this electric car still an old dashboard? I think the reason behind it is probably that the old ideas and the original supply chain system have made the transformation and reform extremely difficult, and it is difficult to achieve the effect of designing a brand new, breaking through tradition and highly innovative. Unlike the products launched by the new car-making forces, you will have a refreshing feeling as soon as you get in the car.
In the future development of this company, I think there may be a turning point. We may see new forces in car manufacturing overtaking corners, transforming to smart cars, and consolidating the dominant position, transforming to the future of mobility as a service, and its disruption will be intense.
Someone asked me to specifically write about what services would be lost with EVs, so I am going to list them (not comprehensive, but broad enough):
Services related to air intake and emission: intake manifold, intake systems, throttle plate cleaning, change of filters, sensors especially O2 sensors, exhaust emission system, catalytic converters, particulate filtering, exhaust pipes. The impact covers diagnosis to parts replacement, so the air intake compression tests, exhaust emission tests, even turbo systems, would be rendered redundant.
Cooling system: no more radiators and cooling jacket tests, no need for temperature sensors and tests, water pumps, belts to run the pumps, no sales of coolants. What's left would be the cooling system for the batteries instead.
Ignition system services become obsolete, so no more spark plug replacements, no glow plugs, no starter motors, no alternators. There are no more carbon removal on piston rings, fuel injection system compression tests and calibrations, no more engine components machining. Services for engine lubrication becomes obsolete. No need to worry anymore about gasket leaks, getting under the car to check for oil leaks. The entire electrical system for ignition is also obsolete, and away goes the diagnostics too.
Services relating to fuel delivery system, starting from the fuel storage (in the tank) to dispensing. No more worry about fuel pumps malfunctioning, fuel gauge not working, clogged fuel lines. Even EVAP services are eliminated.
Diagnostic system becomes obsolete as EVs become fully computerized. No more OBDs. No more memorizing of codes.
Even wheel system services are reduced. Take for instance brake pads, due to the regenerative braking system, brake pads take much longer to wear out. Parking brakes become fully electronic. 4X4 systems are replaced by motors on all wheels so there is no more transfer case and related servicing.
Workshop operators, when they see this list, becomes nervous, because they find that most of what they are doing today will soon become obsolete!
With all the decades and even a century of automotive experience, with the high entry barriers to the industry, why is car electrification being led by newcomers like Tesla, NIO and XPeng?
Make no mistake, credit is due to the traditional auto makers, many of whom have introduced electric cars (EVs) in the last few years, and plan to bring into the market a lot more models. They have also recently invested heavily in car electrification, and some have made announcements to go completely electric in the near future. However, their speed to market is still slow compared to the new players. With all their experience and resources, why should this be the case? In fact, the reverse should be true, traditional car makers should move ahead a lot faster, by simple logic, but this is not the case. Why?
The biggest fear of the traditional auto makers is the fear of cannibalization of their profitable models, their bread and butter. Let's look at a similar case, though different in nature, the fear is the same. Porsche, Maserati, Rolls Royce, they initially resisted developing an SUV model even though the global trend is moving towards SUVs. Their fear is the loss of identity and that the SUV models may eat into their sales of the core models. Fortunately for Porsche, the Cayenne became a great success.
Personally, I think car electrification poses the greatest challenge for sports car makers. For decades, they extoll the raw power of their big big engines, the muscular sound of the engine revv, which is what defines them and makes them what they are. Now, the smaller sized electric motor can do more than those big and muscular engines, silently, now that negates all the marketing work they have done for the last few decades. This reality destroys their sense of identity. If Porsche make their cars electric, what is the new identity? Will electrification take away the sales of their current core models? How will that impact their bottomline?
As you can see from the image posted above, that fear is very real. So, if you are a member of the top Porsche management, what would you do? Go ahead with electrification, or not? If yes, what kind of pace would you adopt? How would you create a new identity that is no longer associated with the loud engine revv and big engines, big exhaust pipes? How would you manage the transition to electric cars with minimal impact to the bottom line? How do you convince the shareholders that the short term pain in necessary for long term gain?
(Photo by Yu Ruidong/China News Service/VCG via Getty Images)
Norway continued in 2020 to be the only market in the world where EVs outsold conventional ICE vehicles. This is now not only a monthly outcome, but EVs outsold ICE vehicles for the entire year of 2020 in Norway, holding 54% of total sales. The EV is expected to be even more dominant in 2021, and Norway is on track to become entirely electric for new car sales by 2025. This outcome is very encouraging to the EV makers, especially to the competitors to Tesla. In the past, EV and Tesla was almost synonymous, however, this has changed. Audi e-tron, and not Tesla, is the best selling EV in Norway. As the analysts in Norway says, there are now other options beside Tesla.
Norway is expected to continue to attract new EV product launches, before they are introduced to the other markets in Europe. I foresee more choices for the consumers in the years to come, and the wider variety of offers are likely to come from the traditional car manufacturers like Audi/VW, Volvo, Mercedes Benz, BMW, and probably even from PSA group. In other parts of Europe, EV sales have also increased, Germany's EV sales numbers more than tripled despite the pandemic, and despite the drop in total industry sales.
In China, though, we are likely to see Tesla reaping the fruits of their investment there. The sales increase in China will continue to fuel investor interest in their stock prices. At the point of writing, Tesla share have already reached record high of USD700. In 2020, almost half a million Teslas were delivered to customers, in 2021 it is projected to increase by at least 30%. So, Tesla is not losing sleep over Audi overtaking them in Norway.
For ICE cars, interestingly, they are also becoming more and more thirsty for energy. 12-volt batteries have regularly been upgraded to higher amps. My Honda Accord was previously fitted with 12V 45A battery but now 50A is the norm in Thailand. I project the power need to rise in the near future and more amps needed to power all the added electronics and gadgets in the car. I also foresee continued efforts to introduce mild hybrids, those 48V battery cars, and maybe some 24V cars that are needed to support the much more technologically loaded vehicles.
In short, the future looks good for EVs and 12V to 48V battery supply.