A couple of days ago, a friend of mine called me the EV guru in his WhatsApp message to me. He believes that I am totally an EV convert, based on my writings, and that EV shall become the mainstream within the next 5 years. His understanding is actually not correct, I am not unconvinced that EV will become main stream in the next 5 years, but within the next 10 years it will surely have a strong industry representation. I am saying this not because I have doubts about the technical superiority of EVs, but because history has taught us that for product adoption, there is still the emotional part to overcome. So what are the possible irrational emotions holding back consumers back?
前些日子,我的一位好朋友给我冠了个新头衔,称我为(电动车支持者 EV guru),之所以在网上这么称呼我是因为他从我的写作中判断我已经是百分百的皈依电动车, 认为我对电动车在不久的将来将完全取代传统内燃车这样一个预测完全赞同。说实话,对于电动车在5年内普及化这么一个预测我还真是不置可否,不是说电动车技术上还没法取代内燃车,而是因为要成为市场主流产品重点还是得取得消费者的信任和接受。电动车要成为市场主流产品之前,会遇到什么阻力呢? Let us first start by talking about Toyota. Keen observers of Toyota would quickly realize that it is slow in its EV adoption, and before last year has not announced any concrete EV plan, choosing instead to focus solely on hybrid technology. Only recently did Toyota announce the introduction of its first EV by 2020, and up to 10 models by 2025. Some people may infer from this that even a top car maker has doubts about the EV, it is surely a valid reason to hold back on EV for the time being. 先说说丰田。关注丰田的朋友们会发现,丰田纯电动车推广比较慢。不仅如此,官方信息发布经常会间接的否定电动车,大力提倡的非电动车而是混合动力车。直到去年,丰田才公布纯电动车计划。尽管如此,第一台纯电动车型投放市场还是要等到2020年,这已经是丰田在加速推进之中。有些人可能会觉得连行业老大哥都持保留态度,那么纯电动肯定存在严重弊端。 In 2015, in announcing its “Environmental Challenge 2050” strategy, Toyota mapped out its route towards fuel cell technology, transitioning with hybrid technology which it said will last for 2 decades. However, by the end of 2017, Toyota has changed course, and has committed to speed up BEV development and aim to roll out their EV cars worldwide in their new 10-year EV strategy. 关注丰田的朋友应该还会记得,在2015年丰田曾发布过一个战略,名为“丰田环境挑战2050”,重点是丰田当时将发展方向定在了混合动力和燃料电池,纯电动车似乎被忽略不计。氢燃料电池 Hydrogen Fuel Cell 明确的时终极目标。然而两年后,也就是2017年底,丰田发布了面向2020年到2030年的挑战规划,宣布将在2020-2025年间按照中国、日本、印度、美国、欧洲的顺序在全球推出10款以上纯电动汽车。 Personally, I can understand the position that Toyota is taking, considering the huge investments it has already poured into the hybrid technology. Toyota is the undisputed number 1 for hybrid cars, and thus stand to lose the most in any erosion of the hybrid status. The other possible reason could be inferred from their previous encounter with EVs, where their RAV4-EV failed miserably, and that memory continues to linger within the boardrooms. 丰田此举是可以理解的。他们在混合动力技术方面投资巨大,忽然来个纯电动,之前的投资将打水漂。丰田在国际舞台上惯用的辩解是技术更迭需要一个过程,传统传动到纯电动必须经过混合动力这个过程。丰田的策略看似按部就班,可是市场的格局则瞬息万变。后来丰田又说纯电动技术目前还不成熟,丰田只愿拿出自己认为真正靠谱的东西。其实丰田早在70年代便开始研究电动汽车和混合动力车,并于90年代研发并销售了RAV4-EV,但这款车销量很一般。很显然,丰田在那会儿对纯电动车的态度是担心大于信心的。 Now that Toyota has decided to join the EV train, it would have to find ways to quickly recoup all the investments into hybrid technology. I recently read about Toyota’s plan to make their hybrid technology non-proprietary, so that there is greater worldwide adoption of the hybrid and that could extend the life of the hybrid technology considerably. They also will become the contract manufacturer for Suzuki Maruti hybrids, while still continuing to argue for the hybrids in India. For the truly environmentally conscious, the question of whether the EV is really environmentally friendly continues to linger. One not only has to consider the emission from driving, but also has to take into account the environmental impact from the production of batteries and electricity. A few weeks ago, the Japanese government announced potential new methods of calculating the EV subsidies by taking into account these factors. Notwithstanding, from the technical perspective, EVs do offer much less detriment to the environment than internal combustion cars. 为了在短时间内使混合动力投资回报最大化,丰田到处张罗其混合动力技术,不断地向同行招手,希望能代生产混合动力车。举个例子,丰田将为铃木印度代工贴牌。 首先,我们来看看主要社交媒体一些针对电动车的舆论。常出现的讨论议题有消费者对现在的纯电动汽车真的环保吗提出疑问。我个人总结出来的结果是肯定的。电动车主们充电时可以充分利用夜间的谷电,对电网效率有利 。电动车在堵车的时候没有怠速损耗 。通过 regenerative braking system 能够回收制动时的能量 。电动车的反对者就提问到了发电的污染,还有生产电池和废弃电池的污染。日本政府近期的密室讨论过程中也涉及到了EV优惠政策, 将来在拟定新能源车辆的优惠政策是将把发电污染考虑在内。 The main obstacle, in my opinion, to EV becoming mainstream is more an emotional and psychological one. Much of the negative emotions towards EVs in fact arise from an acute lack of understanding of the EV technology and its application. Sadly, most of what we learn about the EV technology comes from the EV startups and of course Tesla, while the traditional key players like Toyota, VW, Honda, Ford, General Motors have been silent mostly. If these big players have played their part in educating potential car buyers, the EV adoption could be much faster. 其次,电动车需要跨过消费者心里障碍这个坎, 才能真正的普及起来。消费者为什么会出现心理障碍,对电动车为什么还是保留观望的态度呢?这个问题和大多数人对电动车的不认识不了解是息息相关的。缺乏了对电动车的理解和认知,某些消费者就会对电动车产生恐惧。我经常在媒体上看到攻击汽车电动化的理论,里面充分体现出他们反汽车电动化的意识型态。 我们之前在讨论汽车电动化时,是一直在技术层面上体现出电驱动的种种优势,可是消费者能不能够接受新事物新理念新产品很多时候是一个心里问题, 看看厂家能不能有效的传达信息,给消费者信心,和消费者有共识,慢慢的把汽车电动化形成大众想法,这样电动化才能尽快普及起来。 Much of my earlier arguments for EV is in the realm of technology, however, there is always the irrational consumer, and new production adoption always has to go through the process. I recognize the weaknesses of the EV technology, but in time to come, the EV prices will come down, battery technology will improve, charging infrastructure will be in place, running distances will greatly increase, and EV will undoubtedly become the mainstream. 没有一种产品是完美的,它一定存在利与弊,电动车也不例外。他的缺点是续航里程不足,成本高,充电配套设施不完善,残值低,有些人还担心暴雨天淹水会造成电池损坏,汽车撞击时电池会爆炸等等顾虑,但是我相信在不久的将来,技术突破会断断续续的发生,电池生产成本会大幅度下降,续航里程能提升到600-800公里数,充电桩密集度将会达到消费者的需求,电动车也会成为主流车型。
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