BYD made a major announcement that has taken the market by surprise. It will stop producing pure ICE vehicles, and focus on BEVs and Hybrids. This is in contrast with the other major automakers who want to continue producing pure ICE vehicles together with EVs until such time that the EVs become mainstream and ICE vehicles are phased out.
Which strategy is better? The earlier argument is that both ICE and EVs must make up the product range, as the ICEs are mostly profitable for the legacy automakers and the cash cows can fund the growth of EVs which is reckoned to take some time before turning over a profit. Hybrids serve as the transition to fully electric. So what has made BYD change its strategy?
In reality, when we look closely at the pure ICE BYDs, the sales figures have dropped over the years, even though total BYD sales has soared. The engine that is in fact driving BYD's growth is the electric one (including HEVs and PHEVs). BYD reckons that the PHEV and EV sales would have been higher if not for cannibalization by it's own ICE vehicles.
BYD also argues that the ICE is the cash cow that can fund EV's growth. Their financial analysis shows that the cost of maintaining 2 production lines in fact added costs that almost wiped out their ICE profits, therefore maintaining just one line for EV has significant savings that add to the bottomline.
Of course, there is also the added reason that BYD's other main business is the supply and development of batteries. This makes it different from the other car makers.
The Japanese automakers, on the other hand, and banking on a slower transition to electric. Honda, for instance, identified markets least likely to go electric soon, and put their resources. These markets fit the non-electric offers from Honda.
With raw materials for battery getting scarce and costs escalating also due to supply chain issues, the Japanese auto manufacturers are putting their hopes on a slower route to electrification.
In the first quarter of 2022, new energy vehicles were on the rise, and the global market penetration rate reached a new high. The sales outlook for the full year is buoyant and is expected to witness significant growth again, with market penetration in China likely to break 30%. There are two factors contributing to the high sales of new energy vehicles in the world, one is policy-driven, and the other is product-driven.
According to the International Energy Agency's (IEA) Global Electric Vehicle Outlook 2021 policy, more than 20 countries have enacted full electrification schedules or promulgated bans on gasoline vehicles, and 8 countries plus the EU have announced carbon neutral commitment; In terms of products, almost all traditional auto giants have started electrification transformation and stepped up the launch of electric vehicle models. The global sales volume ranks among the TOP 20 vehicle companies (the total sales volume in 2020 will reach 90% of the global sales volume), of which 18 have announced its electrification strategy.
In terms of products:
the optional models are abundant, and new models emerge in an endless stream. In the past, the bottlenecks of electrification, such as mileage anxiety, high car prices, and insufficient charging network, have all begun to be gradually improved.
In the Chinese market, electric vehicles mainly focus on the high-end market above 200,000 yuan and the low-end market below 100,000 yuan in the early stage of promotion. Electric cars are missing. With the introduction of mid-segment models by BYD, ORA, Nezha, etc., the market gap has gradually been filled.
Recently, car companies have also turned their attention to the upgrade market for mobility scooters over 100,000 yuan. Great Wall Ora Cat and BYD Dolphin are positioned as young and fashionable, and are deeply loved by consumers.
The prospect of new energy vehicles is bright, but the embarrassing situation of low retention rate of electric vehicles still needs to be overcome. Some car owners directly said that they would not consider buying an electric car at all.
There are two reasons. First, they are worried about the cruising range. Second, the value preservation rate of new energy used cars is "horrible." Is the actual situation really what he said?
Since this year, the second-hand price of electric vehicles seems to be showing signs of a sudden rebirth. There are two reasons for it to be popular now: one is the shortage of supply caused by the lack of cores, and the other is the consumer wailing behind the oil price.
In the past, consumers were worried that the battery decayed too fast. Thinking that once the battery is unusable, the car is equivalent to scrapping, but if the battery is replaced, the cost is extremely high, and consumers might as well buy a new car.
Battery technology has been greatly improved, and a battery that has been used for 10 years can still retain 80% of its storage function, which is no longer a reasonable reason for rejecting electric power. The only electric car used car price to overcome.
Once electric vehicles become popular, the second-hand market transaction volume will naturally rise gradually. The rising tide of new car prices is unstoppable, and the price of second-hand car naturally rises with the tide. When consumers and used car dealers have more confidence in electric vehicles, the retention rate increases.
A second-hand car dealer observed and found that some electric vehicle brands with insufficient product strength are indeed not good at retaining their value, but the electric vehicle brands that have already come out such as Weilai, Ideal, Xiaopeng, and Tesla, the market has shown that they are not good enough.
Therefore, the value preservation rate is relatively good. The value preservation rate for one year is about 65%-70%, and the value preservation rate for three years is about 50%. Although the retention rate is not very high, it has been greatly improved compared to previous years.
Buyers of second-hand electric vehicles have higher requirements on the EV than buyers of fuel vehicles. The reason is that the structure of electric vehicles is more delicate and the body is more delicate. A slight collision may affect the circuit, central control system, cameras, etc., so the car When inspecting and evaluating vehicles, dealers will be more careful and have higher requirements.
I’ll have an appointment with an agent for dinner two days later. In the used car business, I will encourage him to start focusing on electric vehicles. Now is the golden moment, after all, the competition is not so fierce.